Toronto’s 2026 mayoral election is entering a more competitive phase. Mayor Olivia Chow, Councillor Brad Bradford and former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander faced off on September 22 in a televised Toronto mayoral debate hosted by the Toronto Region Board of Trade and the Toronto Star, with the discussion broadcast on CityNews.
The debate featured sharper exchanges between the candidates, new commitments on taxes and public safety, and a clearer picture of the contrasts each campaign is trying to establish ahead of the October 26 election.
The following day, EOK Consults Managing Principal Harneet Singh joined Cynthia Mulligan on CityNews’ CityTalks, alongside Marion Nader and Jamie Ellerton, to analyze the debate, the latest polling and what the race could look like in its final weeks.
Toronto mayoral polls show a closer race
The debate came as new polling suggested the gap between Chow and Bradford had narrowed.
A Liaison Strategies poll released September 22 had Chow at 47%, Bradford at 40% and Alexander at 10% among decided and leaning voters. Earlier in September, the same pollster had Chow at 50%, Bradford at 39% and Alexander at 10%.
That distinction matters.
During the CityNews panel, Singh cautioned against interpreting the smaller gap as evidence of a dramatic shift from Chow directly to Bradford.
“Even if her lead has come down… Bradford’s has only gone up by one. So it’s not that Olivia Chow is losing support and somebody else is picking it up.”
He also cautioned against reading too much into any single survey, noting that polls provide a snapshot of public opinion at a particular moment rather than a guarantee of what voters will do on Election Day.
That aligns with Liaison’s own assessment. Pollster David Valentin said the result showed a closer contest but was “not enough to establish a new trend.”
Another recent survey illustrates why campaigns will be watching the numbers carefully. Mainstreet Research measured Chow at 38.8%, Bradford at 31.4% and Alexander at 8% among all respondents, with 16.8% undecided. About 13.5% said they might still change their vote. Mainstreet Research
Different polling methodologies and voter universes mean the topline numbers should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Together, however, they show why the final weeks of the campaign—and how candidates communicate their messages—matter.
Affordability, taxes and public safety take centre stage at the Toronto Mayoral Debate
The September 22 debate focused heavily on issues already emerging as important to Toronto voters: affordability, property taxes, public safety, transit and the city’s finances.
Bradford used the debate to promise a first-year property tax freeze, including a freeze on the City Building Fund levy, while arguing that savings could be found through a review of Toronto’s nearly $20-billion budget. Chow defended her fiscal record and said property tax increases under another term would remain around inflation. Alexander has also proposed freezing property taxes. CityNews Toronto
The emphasis on affordability reflects the polling. Liaison found cost of living was the most frequently cited top issue, at 23%, followed by concerns including public safety and housing. CityNews Toronto
Public safety also produced one of the debate moments that stood out to Singh.
On CityNews, he pointed to Bradford’s discussion of safety on the TTC as an important moment in the debate, while also highlighting Chow’s defence of her focus on working families and young people.
No single winner — but revealing moments for all three candidates
Asked by Mulligan whether this Toronto Mayoral debate produced a clear winner or loser, Singh resisted reducing the evening to a single verdict.
“I don’t think there was any one winner of that debate, but they all tried to get their punches in, and a few of them succeeded.”
Instead, he identified moments that illustrated what each campaign was trying to accomplish.
Chow used the debate to defend her record and emphasize affordability and support for working families. Bradford continued to make public safety and the cost of city government central to his campaign.
Alexander, meanwhile, created a different dynamic.
Singh highlighted Alexander’s willingness to challenge Bradford directly as one of the more interesting features of the debate.
“Chris Alexander obviously went back at Bradford a few times, and that to me was very interesting—the dynamic between him and Bradford.”
That dynamic matters because Toronto’s mayoral race is no longer simply a two-person exchange between an incumbent and a single principal challenger. Alexander’s presence gives voters another prominent option and changes how debate time, media attention and political contrasts are distributed among the leading candidates.
The battle for attention is moving beyond the debate stage
The televised debate is only one part of a broader communications contest.
Toronto’s mayoral campaigns are increasingly fighting for voters’ attention across television, earned media, social media, paid digital advertising, direct voter contact and the doorstep.
That is particularly important in municipal elections.
Unlike federal and provincial candidates, municipal candidates do not have national or provincial party brands automatically providing them with a communications infrastructure or built-in partisan identification. Candidates have to build their own audiences and repeatedly introduce their messages to voters.
The result is an increasingly digital-first municipal campaign environment where a debate moment can quickly become a short-form video, digital advertisement, fundraising message or piece of targeted campaign content.
At EOK Consults, we have been tracking that shift throughout Ontario’s 2026 municipal election cycle. Toronto is now providing one of the clearest examples of how the traditional campaign and the digital campaign increasingly operate together.
What to watch as Toronto heads toward Election Day
With Election Day set for October 26, the remaining campaign period will test whether the movement seen in recent polls persists, reverses or changes again. CityNews Toronto
For Chow, the challenge is to defend her record and maintain the coalition currently supporting her.
For Bradford, the task is to communicate his contrasts with the incumbent and expand his support beyond its current level.
Alexander’s campaign will be trying to convert attention and debate exposure into additional support while establishing where he fits in a contest increasingly focused on affordability, taxes and public safety.
But one of the most important lessons from the current numbers is also one of the simplest: a narrowing polling gap is not necessarily the same thing as one candidate surging.
Understanding why numbers move—and where those voters are going—is more useful than simply watching the margin.
Watch Harneet Singh’s CityNews analysis
Following the debate, EOK Consults Managing Principal Harneet Singh joined Cynthia Mulligan on CityNews’ CityTalks with Marion Nader and Jamie Ellerton to discuss the latest polling, debate performances and campaign dynamics.
Watch the full conversation below.
