An EOK Consults analysis of Facebook and Instagram advertising by the Ontario Liberal Leadership 2026 candidates reveals different approaches to targeting, campaign messaging and voter mobilization as Ontario Liberals prepare to choose their next leader.
The final debate is over. The membership deadlines have passed. And in a matter of days, Ontario Liberals will begin voting for their next leader.
But while much of the attention has focused on endorsements, fundraising and the candidates’ performances on the debate stage, another contest has been unfolding on Facebook and Instagram.
An EOK Consults review of Meta advertising activity between August 3 and October 31, 2026, reveals four distinct approaches to digital campaigning. From regionally targeted advertising and health-care messaging to student-focused creative and practical voting instructions, the campaigns of Navdeep Bains, Stephanie Bowman, Lee Fairclough and Dylan Marando are using social media in noticeably different ways.
The review also reveals an important shift in strategy.
Earlier in the race, advertising helped candidates introduce themselves to Ontarians, attract supporters and encourage people to join the Liberal Party. Now, with membership eligibility closed and voting approaching, the emphasis is increasingly on reaching existing members and making sure supporters cast their ballots.
It’s a distinction that matters in any leadership contest. Building a following is one challenge. Turning that following into votes is another.
Ontario Liberal Leadership 2026: From recruiting members to reaching the people who can vote
Leadership campaigns operate differently from general elections.
In a provincial election, candidates are trying to persuade thousands of voters across their ridings. In a leadership contest, the electorate is much smaller, and campaigns have an opportunity to identify and communicate directly with the people who will decide the result.
For the 2026 Ontario Liberal leadership election, the general membership deadline was September 7, while eligible student club members had until September 25 to join.
Before those deadlines, broad social media advertising served a clear purpose.
Candidates could introduce themselves to Ontarians who might not follow provincial Liberal politics closely, promote their policy priorities and encourage people to become party members. Campaigns could also use petitions, sign-up forms and other digital tools to build their supporter lists.
Once the deadlines passed, the immediate electoral value of broad membership recruitment diminished.
The focus shifted to a defined electorate: eligible Liberal members.
For campaigns with well-developed supporter databases, that creates opportunities to use digital advertising more precisely. Where permitted under privacy and platform rules, campaigns can reconnect with identified supporters, reinforce messages through remarketing and complement phone calls, emails and other direct outreach.
They can also use advertising to remind members about important dates, explain voting requirements and reach people who may be less responsive to traditional campaign contact.
The underlying objective is straightforward: ensure supporters know what to do and actually vote.
That is becoming increasingly visible in the advertising of the four leadership candidates.
Stephanie Bowman: Financial experience, high-volume creative and an appeal to younger Liberals
Stephanie Bowman has operated the largest Meta advertising campaign among the four remaining candidates in the Ontario Liberal Leadership 2026 race during the period reviewed.
We identified more than 200 ad variations associated with her campaign, with approximately $24,700 in spending between August 3 and October 31.
Much of Bowman’s advertising centres on her financial and professional experience. Her videos emphasize economic credentials, leadership and the argument that experience matters when choosing the next Liberal leader.
This approach aligns with her broader campaign positioning: presenting herself as someone with the expertise to challenge Premier Doug Ford and offer a credible alternative government.
But some of Bowman’s most interesting advertising targets a different audience.
Several ads address the Ford government’s cuts to the Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP), with messaging that explicitly references Ontario Young Liberals.
One creative uses the headline “Students Paid The Price”, accompanied by a photograph of a university financial aid office and a call to join Bowman’s campaign.
The design is strikingly different from the more conventional candidate videos elsewhere in her advertising. It uses a stark layout, bold red text and relatively little visual polish.
Whether that creative approach is effective cannot be determined from the public advertising data. But the audience it appears designed to reach is worth noting.
Student clubs have their own role in the Ontario Liberal leadership voting system. Each eligible student club receives an allocation of leadership points, making support among younger members potentially valuable.
OSAP is also an issue with direct relevance to students. By connecting a policy grievance to her leadership campaign, Bowman is giving younger Liberals a reason to engage beyond her personal credentials.
Her advertising also illustrates the volume of creative material campaigns can deploy on Meta. More than 200 ad variations do not necessarily mean 200 entirely different concepts; variations may reflect different text, formats, audiences or delivery settings.
Still, the scale of Bowman’s activity suggests that paid social media has been a significant component of her communications strategy.
More recently, her advertising has appeared increasingly focused on narrower audiences associated with existing supporters and party members, rather than the broader outreach visible earlier in the contest.
Navdeep Bains: Geographic targeting and a clear shift toward voting instructions
Navdeep Bains has taken a somewhat different approach.
The former federal cabinet minister spent approximately $16,400 on Meta advertising during the review period, with more than 80 observed ad variations.
One of the more notable features of his campaign is its use of geographic targeting.
We observed advertising aimed at specific postal codes and regions, including Northern Ontario and parts of the Ottawa area. Other ads used interests connected to politics, social issues and health care.
Some creative material was tailored to regional audiences, including messaging directed toward Northern Ontario.
This approach makes particular sense in the context of the Ontario Liberal leadership voting system.
The contest is decided through a points-based process that allocates points across constituency associations and affiliated clubs. Campaigns therefore have an incentive to build support across Ontario, rather than concentrating exclusively on the largest population centres.
Regionally targeted advertising can help reinforce a candidate’s presence in areas where in-person campaigning may be more difficult or where a relatively small number of additional members could make a meaningful difference.
Bains’ broader creative strategy emphasizes his political and professional experience. His “Let’s Lead Again” messaging, videos and comparisons with Doug Ford present him as a candidate with the credentials to rebuild the party and challenge the Progressive Conservatives.
But the campaign’s most recent advertising signals a different priority.
In early November, the active Bains ads reviewed by EOK Consults were focused heavily on how Ontario Liberal members can vote.
Rather than simply making the case for Bains as leader, the ads explain the practical steps members must take, including identity verification and participation in the online voting process.
That is an important development.
Campaigns can spend months recruiting members, building databases and identifying supporters. But none of that guarantees those members will complete the voting process.
A supporter who misses a verification requirement or fails to submit a ballot cannot contribute to the final result.
For a campaign that believes it has built a substantial base of support, the closing stage of the race is therefore as much about organization as persuasion.
Bains’ advertising suggests that his team understands this distinction.
Lee Fairclough: Health care and leadership experience at the centre of the message
Lee Fairclough has spent considerably less on Meta advertising than Bowman or Bains, but her campaign has maintained a relatively active creative presence.
We identified more than 70 ad variations associated with Fairclough’s campaign, with approximately $5,100 in spending during the review period.
Her professional background in health care is a recurring theme.
The campaign has repeatedly used health-care-related audience interests, alongside videos discussing her experience building teams, managing organizations and delivering results.
Other advertisements criticize the Ford government’s record on health care and argue that Ontario Liberals need a leader capable of defeating the Progressive Conservatives.
Rather than shifting between numerous unrelated messages, Fairclough’s advertising consistently returns to the experience she brings to the race.
This gives her campaign a recognizable theme.
Health care is a major issue in Ontario politics, but it is also an area where Fairclough can speak directly to her professional background. Video advertising provides an opportunity to explain that experience in her own words.
The campaign’s approach also illustrates an important distinction between advertising volume and advertising budget.
More than 70 variations on a comparatively modest budget suggests that Fairclough’s campaign has been actively producing and distributing different messages, even without matching the spending of the two larger Meta advertisers.
Her advertising strategy appears designed to build credibility around a particular set of strengths rather than compete primarily through spending.
Dylan Marando: A much smaller paid advertising presence
Dylan Marando has maintained a substantially smaller footprint on Meta.
We identified three ads during the review period, with approximately $247 in spending.
At the time of the review, one active advertisement promoted an “Unapologetic Liberals” message.
Another interesting detail was the geographic setting visible in the Ad Library: Canada-wide targeting rather than Ontario-specific targeting.
For a provincial leadership election decided by eligible Ontario Liberal members, that is an unusually broad geographic selection.
It may reflect a deliberate choice, a simplified campaign setup or another explanation. The publicly available information does not establish the reason.
The limited advertising activity also makes it difficult to identify a broader digital strategy from Meta data alone.
Marando may be reaching supporters through other channels, including organic social media, direct outreach or campaign events. Those activities fall outside this review.
What the available data does show is that paid Facebook and Instagram advertising has played a much smaller visible role in his campaign than in those of the other three candidates.
What the spending and fundraising figures tell us
The differences between the campaigns become clearer when their Meta spending is compared.
Our review identified the following approximate spending between August 3 and October 31, 2026:
| Candidate | Meta advertising spending |
|---|---|
| Stephanie Bowman | $24,700 |
| Navdeep Bains | $16,400 |
| Lee Fairclough | $5,100 |
| Dylan Marando | $247 |
Bowman accounted for more than half of the spending identified across the four campaigns, followed by Bains and Fairclough.
But the Ontario Liberal Leadership 2026 contest’s fundraising picture looks quite different.
According to an October 21 report by iPolitics/QP Briefing, Bains’ campaign reported raising close to $750,000, followed by Fairclough at $622,940. Bowman reported close to $500,000, in addition to some smaller contributions, while Marando’s campaign reported more than $200,000.
These were campaign-reported figures, not independently audited totals.
The contrast is revealing.
Bains led in reported fundraising, while Bowman led in observed Meta advertising spending. Fairclough reported raising more than Bowman but had spent substantially less on the platform.
This does not establish which campaign is better funded overall or which has made the most effective use of its resources.
Leadership campaigns invest in far more than digital advertising. Staff, organizers, events, travel, direct voter contact and other campaign operations all compete for funding.
What the comparison does show is that candidates are making different choices about the role paid social media should play in their campaigns.
The figures also appear to be rising as voting approaches.
In the opening days of November, we observed individual days of spending exceeding $600 for Bains, $340 for Bowman and $140 for Fairclough.
Why geography, supporter data and ranked ballots matter
The Ontario Liberal leadership election is not simply a province-wide popularity contest.
Members vote directly, but the party uses a points system to determine the winner.
Each constituency association is allocated 100 points, eligible student clubs receive 50 points, and women’s clubs receive five points. Candidates receive points in proportion to their support within each association or club.
That structure gives campaigns a reason to pay attention to where their supporters are located.
A large concentration of support in one area may not be as valuable as a more geographically distributed base.
It also helps explain why regional targeting, such as the advertising observed in Bains’ campaign, can be relevant to a leadership contest.
But geography is only one part of the equation.
The party is using an online ranked-ballot system, allowing members to rank candidates in order of preference.
That creates an additional strategic consideration: campaigns need to think beyond first-choice support.
A candidate who is not someone’s first preference may still benefit from being ranked second or third, depending on how the voting unfolds.
Social media advertising can reinforce a candidate’s message among members who may already be considering another contender, although the public data cannot show whether those ads actually change ballot rankings.
Finally, there is the practical challenge of participation.
Voting opens November 9 and closes November 20. Members must meet the party’s identity verification requirements and complete the online voting process.
That makes clear voting instructions and timely reminders particularly valuable in the final weeks.
The shift toward procedural advertising in the Bains campaign is one visible example of that priority.
Other campaigns may be conducting similar efforts through email, telephone outreach and other channels that are not captured by Meta’s Ad Library.
The final challenge: Turning digital engagement into votes
The four campaigns have approached paid social media differently.
Bowman has invested heavily in advertising volume, emphasizing financial experience while also experimenting with messaging aimed at younger Liberals.
Bains has combined regional targeting and experience-based messaging with a recent emphasis on explaining the voting process.
Fairclough has used video and health-care-focused advertising to reinforce her professional background and leadership credentials.
Marando has maintained a comparatively limited paid advertising presence.
None of these approaches can be judged solely by the amount spent or the number of ads published.
Meta’s Ad Library offers useful visibility into advertising spending, creative content and certain targeting or delivery information. It does not disclose the campaigns’ complete supporter databases, internal conversion results, verified voter commitments or the actual effectiveness of individual ads.
And it cannot tell us which candidate is going to win.
What it does reveal is how leadership campaigns adapt their communications as the contest progresses.
Early in the race, social media can help candidates attract attention and recruit members. Once the electorate is established, the emphasis shifts toward reaching the right people, reinforcing support and ensuring members vote.
With online voting beginning November 9 and the next Ontario Liberal leader set to be announced November 21, the final test is approaching.
The campaigns have spent months building their organizations and making their case to party members.
Now they need to turn that work into ballots.
Because in a leadership race, the most valuable digital engagement is ultimately the one that becomes a vote.
About this analysis
EOK Consults is a Canadian digital marketing agency specializing in political campaigns, public affairs and advocacy.
This independent analysis is based on publicly available Meta Ad Library information reviewed between August 3 and October 31, 2026, with additional observations of active advertisements in early November.
Spending figures are approximate and reflect the advertisements identified during the review. Ad variation counts represent observed advertising entries, which may include different versions of similar creative material.
Descriptions of advertising themes, audiences and targeting are based on the publicly visible information reviewed by EOK Consults. The analysis does not establish campaign effectiveness, actual voter persuasion or the internal strategies of the campaigns.
EOK Consults does not endorse any candidate in this analysis.
